Download PDF by Dean A. Wilkening: Ballistic-Missile Defence and Strategic Stability (Adelphi

By Dean A. Wilkening

ISBN-10: 0199290040

ISBN-13: 9780199290048

Should still the united states installation ballistic-missile defences? The arguments for and opposed to have gotten more and more polarised. This paper bargains what's presently missing within the debate: a quantitative research of ways good defences must paintings to fulfill particular safeguard targets, and what point of defence could disillusioned strategic balance.

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Additional info for Ballistic-Missile Defence and Strategic Stability (Adelphi series)

Sample text

Table 3 (page 56) shows the approximate number of THAAD interceptors that might appear threatening for three Russian force levels and five attack scenarios on generated alert, assuming Russian leaders believe that TMD 56 Dean A. Wilkening Table 3 THAAD and Russian and Chinese Ballistic-Missile Retaliation Number of interceptors causing 20% degradation as a function of the percentage of US territory targeted 100% 50% 30% 20% 10% 720 460 340 1,080 700 510 2,170 1,400 1,020 Russia (generated alert) 1,794 warheads 220 1,428 warheads 140 1,161 warheads loo China (generated alert) 102-190 warheads 13-30 430 280 200 25-60 45-95 70-140 135-280 interceptors can be guided in flight beyond the range of their firecontrol radars.

For example, some cities and highvalue military facilities could be defended by three layers: a boostphase layer, an upper-tier layer and a lower-tier layer. THAAD and NTW can operate in shoot-look-shoot mode, effectively providing two mid-course layers, albeit with a smaller footprint. PAC3 and NAD are designed to provide local defence of high-priority targets, such as cities and large military facilities. However, lower-tier defences cannot meet the defence criterion alone because too many interceptors would be needed; other layers must also be present.

If Russia deployed effective decoys, proportionately more interceptors would be required to pose a threat. The defence would be more effective if Russian forces were on day-to-day alert. But it is implausible that Russia would keep its nuclear forces on a low state of alert if the US deployed TMD systems around its national territory, contrary to assurances that it would not do so. Table 3 (page 56) shows the approximate number of THAAD interceptors that might appear threatening for three Russian force levels and five attack scenarios on generated alert, assuming Russian leaders believe that TMD 56 Dean A.

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Ballistic-Missile Defence and Strategic Stability (Adelphi series) by Dean A. Wilkening


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